Richard Aerni on tue 1 sep 98
Hello clayfolk,
So, I'm up very, very late, firing that last kiln before a show, trying
to stay awake for the last burner turn-up, longing for those four hours
of sleep I'll get when I coast it to burn off the organics, sulfates,
etc, and Nightline comes on, followed by various and sundry other talk
type shows. Subject of all of them--you guessed it...the stock market,
the chances for a depression, recession, etc. Was hard to get away
from...
So of course, being the global, visionary thinker that I am, I
immediately moved on to the larger issue of the day, namely, "I wonder if
people will still be in a buying mood by this weekend?" Along with its
corollaries, "Maybe I should be eating at fast food places instead of
having a nice meal after the show closes", and "Maybe I should sleep in
the van instead of the hotel." Eventually sleep overcame all, and I
drifted off.
So, now, it's morning, the kiln's still firing, and the questions remain.
It will be interesting to see the public's behavior, given the fact that
many of them will have lost 20% of their investments, retirement, etc,
since July (if they are in the stock market). Will they be tightfisted
(will the psychology of impending famine affect their eating habits?),
will they have a devil may care attitude and continue to buy, buy, buy
(eternal optimists, or rather, eternal shoppers), or what?
I'll be curious to see. Since I make work that rather straddles the line
between functional and "gallery pots", I'm usually positioned to weather
storms like this. But, I must confess, I've never done a show,
particularly one in the heart of the East Coast high income high roller
area, so soon after a major financial hiccup. I'm sure there will be
lots of talk about what it all means for us working potters.
Any clayarters out there have any thoughts on the matter?
Getting ready to go out and adjust the atmosphere...
Richard Aerni
Bloomfield, NY
Carolynn Palmer on wed 2 sep 98
Even though I make functional pottery, I know I am selling luxuries to people
who can usually afford them. I believe that because we sell non-essential
things, we are the easiest to give up when the buying public becomes uneasy
about their income or has their income cut. Everyone still has to eat, still
has to pay the rent, still has to have transportation, but hand-made pottery?
Just having the media talk about recession and depression affects my sales. I
believe simply having a lot of news and hype about a recession can cause one
in my sales at fairs and therefore impact my life. My first thought when I
heard about the stock market was that it was going to affect my sales in a
negative way, just when I am heading into a three weekend long show that is
very important to my budget!
I will be looking forward with great interest to what Richard Aerni
experiences this weekend. Hopefully he will let us know when he returns.
Carolynn Palmer, Somerset Center, Michigan
lpskeen on wed 2 sep 98
Richard Aerni wrote:
> It will be interesting to see the public's behavior, Will they be tight
Richard,
In spite of the "good" economy we have had this spring, we've been very
disappointed in sales at all our shows. Everyone I've talked to says
their sales are down too. OTOH, the holiday season is approaching, so I
hope that kicks in our favor.
--
Lisa Skeen ICQ# 15554910
Living Tree Pottery & Soaps
http://www.uncg.edu/~lpskeen
"We will have to repent in this generation not merely for the hateful
words and actions of the bad people, but for the appalling silence of
the good people." -- Dr. M. L. King, Jr. 4/16/63
Jim Cullen on wed 2 sep 98
Well, If you were about to lose your lifes savings, it would be nice to have a
POT to pee in. So, POTTERY sales should be exploding. However, if you were a
bottom buyer, you could have gotten in this morning and you would be reaping
the benefits of the rebound and you might need a POT to carry all your profits
home in. So, again, POTTERY sales should be exploding. So, the way I see
it...POTTERY sales should be exploding, no matter what side of the DOW you
were on.
But, I'm a potter, what the hell do I know about economics.
You buy a pound of clay for $.30, spin it around on an $800 wheel, coat it
with $1.00 worth of glaze, burn it in a $2,000 kiln, and then try to sell it
for $25.
Now that's economics!!!!
Keep Centered
CULLEN
Linda Blossom on wed 2 sep 98
Dear Richard,
If it is any help, NPR on morning edition today, interviewed several people =
and
they all had a long haul view of the market and were just going to ride it =
out.
That is how I see my IRA's that are in mutual funds.
Linda Blossom
2366 Slaterville Rd.
Ithaca, NY 14850
6075397912
www.artscape.com
blossom=40lightlink.com
tmartens on thu 3 sep 98
Well things financial hit and all time low here in South Africa a
couple of years ago ( at least we thought it was an all time
low......time teaches one that low can get VERY low! ) Anyway
interest rates went up and mortgage rates went up and gas and food
and and and......and sales went waaaaay down........I mean starving
in a garret down, now the mortgage rate has climbed even higher
24%.....so my question is how nutritional is clay?
Toni Martens, feeling like giggling insanely because it has to be
better than crying, no?
----------------------------Original message----------------------------
Hello clayfolk,
So, I'm up very, very late, firing that last kiln before a show, trying
to stay awake for the last burner turn-up, longing for those four hours
of sleep I'll get when I coast it to burn off the organics, sulfates,
etc, and Nightline comes on, followed by various and sundry other talk
type shows. Subject of all of them--you guessed it...the stock market,
the chances for a depression, recession, etc. Was hard to get away
from...
So of course, being the global, visionary thinker that I am, I
immediately moved on to the larger issue of the day, namely, "I wonder if
people will still be in a buying mood by this weekend?" Along with its
corollaries, "Maybe I should be eating at fast food places instead of
having a nice meal after the show closes", and "Maybe I should sleep in
the van instead of the hotel." Eventually sleep overcame all, and I
drifted off.
So, now, it's morning, the kiln's still firing, and the questions remain.
It will be interesting to see the public's behavior, given the fact that
many of them will have lost 20% of their investments, retirement, etc,
since July (if they are in the stock market). Will they be tightfisted
(will the psychology of impending famine affect their eating habits?),
will they have a devil may care attitude and continue to buy, buy, buy
(eternal optimists, or rather, eternal shoppers), or what?
I'll be curious to see. Since I make work that rather straddles the line
between functional and "gallery pots", I'm usually positioned to weather
storms like this. But, I must confess, I've never done a show,
particularly one in the heart of the East Coast high income high roller
area, so soon after a major financial hiccup. I'm sure there will be
lots of talk about what it all means for us working potters.
Any clayarters out there have any thoughts on the matter?
Getting ready to go out and adjust the atmosphere...
Richard Aerni
Bloomfield, NY
Don & Isao Morrill on thu 3 sep 98
At 09:44 9/2/98 EDT, Linda Blossom wrote:
>----------------------------Original message----------------------------
> Dear "ALL",(In response to ' How market forces may impact pottery sales.')
Seems to me I've been over this track several times since 1929: "A
chicken in every pot and a car in every garage." These fine words were
spoken in the depths of the "Great Depression". The only 'magic' which got
us out of that fix,was WW2 and the death of millions. Of course,at the end
of that war, potters began a rise in sales which continued until 1981
hardly effected by the Korean War or the Viet-nam War. Since that time
there has been a general drift downwards in sales. Oddly enough,there
appears to have been an increase in students at university
level....recieving the degree in "Ceramics" principply to allow the
'teaching' of ceramics as a part of "...the increase in leisure time."
(Read: ...increasing unemployment among persons over 40yrs.of age.)
Hang in there, sisters and brothers, unlike fish,although pots may
'stink' aesthetically,they do not rot with time. We shall rise again. Don &
Isao
Wendy Rosen on thu 3 sep 98
Risky Business- Alert!
If one of your larger accounts (chain stores for instance) has financed
their business on the value of stock shares held in another business...
your business is at risk if the market drops.
There was a time when these issues didn't impact us... those days are long
gone. With chains of craft galleries and large over-leveraged businesses we
all need to be careful or the "early nineties" will return!
Here's some tips to keep you safe...
Setting Limits on BIG Accounts
Often big customers come with big expectations... with each reorder they
push the limits of your envelope regarding payment terms and raising credit
limits. Although they look like your other accounts... behind closed doors
they are often very different.
Unlike most of your smaller accounts the big guys leverage money using
everything from stocks to your unsold merchandise as collaterial against
bank loans. If the stock market dips... instant Chapter 11 can result.
How to make big accounts work for you?...
1) Make sure your unsold (and unpaid for) merchandise is "under
consignment" and remains your property until paid for.
2) Require quarterly financial statements... YOU ARE an investor!
3) Make credit limits reasonable- no more than you could stand to lose! And
KEEP them there!
4) Beware of "bust-out" tactics where early orders are paid for promptly
and a later large order doesn't get paid at all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is The Credit Report Accurate?
Many craft retailers have Dun and Bradstreet Paydex Reports that don't
match their real payment customs. References used by D&B often reflect
payments on bank loans, equipment purchases and leases... not small
accounts like you!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the case of ... Bankruptcy who owns YOUR work?
Unless your agreement with a store states otherwise, your work immediately
becomes an asset of the bankrupt store! If you've been paid recently for
your work the court may ask you to return the payment!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
*******************************************
Wendy Rosen
The Rosen Group
Niche & AmericanStyle Magazines
http://www.americanstyle.com
The Buyers Markets of American Craft
http://www.rosengrp.com
The Business of Craft
http://www.americancraft.com
3000 Chestnut Ave #304 Baltimore, MD 21211
Voice: 410/889-3093 Fax: 410/243-7089
*******************************************
Timothy Dean Malm on thu 3 sep 98
greetings: Savvy investors will tend to look at the sizable drop in the
market as an opportunity to purchase cheaply. I would also say people in
the maeket are not likely to be individuals really starved for
necessities. Look up, the sky is the limit. When a person believes that
beauty is a necessity, she or he will try hard to make a way. Bah on the
nay-sayers. Sincerely, Tim Malm
Rikki Gill on sat 5 sep 98
----------
> From: Carolynn Palmer
> To: CLAYART@LSV.UKY.EDU
> Subject: Re: Will market drop affect pottery sales?
> Date: Wednesday, September 02, 1998 6:27 AM
>
> ----------------------------Original message----------------------------
> Even though I make functional pottery, I know I am selling luxuries to
people
> who can usually afford them. I believe that because we sell
non-essential
> things, we are the easiest to give up when the buying public becomes
uneasy
> about their income or has their income cut. Everyone still has to eat,
still
> has to pay the rent, still has to have transportation, but hand-made
pottery?
>
> Just having the media talk about recession and depression affects my
sales. I
> believe simply having a lot of news and hype about a recession can cause
one
> in my sales at fairs and therefore impact my life. My first thought when
I
> heard about the stock market was that it was going to affect my sales in
a
> negative way, just when I am heading into a three weekend long show that
is
> very important to my budget!
>
> I will be looking forward with great interest to what Richard Aerni
> experiences this weekend. Hopefully he will let us know when he returns.
>
> Carolynn Palmer, Somerset Center, Michigan
/hi carolynn After many years of doing shows I realize that while a bad
economy doesn't help anyone, ceramics are on a continuum, and maybe someone
who can't afford an expensive piece of jewelry, or a painting will console
themselves with a ceramic piece.
Tom Wirt on thu 10 sep 98
--Subject: Re: Will market drop affect pottery sales?
>
Just finished one of our bigger shows of the years in Frankfort, IL. While
hot weather on Sunday definitely affected sales, nothing else did. Greater
than ever crowds, and buying pressure as usual. This show draws both blue
collar and upper middle. Very few of the wealthy types. So from a
perspective of one show, I'd say don't panic yet....however, go back to the
early 80's and see how many were driven out by a sustained downturn....
Oh yeah...the Frankfort Chamber volunteers showed how to run a show. They
have always done an excellent job, but this year a majors storm blew through
from about 11 PM to 3 am. Wiped out some 40 or 50 booths (of 450). The
volunteers were there through the whole storm trying to hold on to things
the best they could. Next morning they had a Polaroid there to take
insurance photos, letters for insurance damage claims, helped clean pup the
mess, delayed the start time and did the best they could to keep the crowd
at the perimeter.
On apparel maker had water damage when her booth flipped. Clothes in the
mud. A volunteer took the damaged stuff home, washed and dried it and
folded everything up and brought it to her in the morning.....unbelievable.
The show did go on!!!
Hi mindy and Greg.
Tom Wirt
peter goubeaud on sun 13 sep 98
Has anyone been considering the potential " aftershock " of the Y2K
situation : how it affects Market, Sales, Utilities, Fuel, Food & Water ;
Life as we know it ??
peter goubeaud
hallelujah pottery
15114 sewanee hwy.
sewanee, tn 37375 usa
juddcut@united.net
http://www.nashville.net/~workshop/pgoubeaud
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